Bob Moriarty: We’ve Seen The Bottom For Gold And Silver, Junior Miners Will Be Up Substantially A Month Or Two From Now
My conversations with 321gold founder Bob Moriarty never follow a script. In fact, they are completely unscripted and oftentimes take completely unexpected turns. The final conversation of 2020 was no different. We began discussing Bob’s assertion that Trump actually won the election, and then veered off onto the all-time highs we are seeing virtually every day in bitcoin and the US stock market.
I will offer fair warning to readers who don’t care to read people’s political opinions, the first 40% of this conversation focused on the election and the accusations of fraud and vote-rigging. My late father warned me many times when I was growing up that the best way to lose friends was to discuss politics and/or religion. While we don’t discuss the latter, we did discuss the former, and while Bob and I don’t see eye to eye the conversation was respectful. One of the areas that we do agree on is precious metals and junior miners.
Without further ado, Energy & Gold’s December 2020 conversation with Bob Moriarty…
Goldfinger: It’s good to speak with you today Bob. This is the last conversation in 2020, a year that’s been quite eventful. You’ve made some really good calls this year, including calling the February/March market crash.
I read your article from December 12th titled, “What if Trump Won the Election?” Now, I don’t want to spend too much time on Trump and politics but it would be hard to have a conversation and not at least mention it. I disagree with most of your points in this article, including that “The election result could be forecast by social media numbers.” I don’t think that’s accurate at all considering that Donald Trump has been on Twitter since its inception, and he uses the platform 20 times a day. He’s also been president for four years, and he had an extremely popular TV show for 10 years, so of course he has more social media following than Biden and Harris. That point I think is irrelevant and erroneous, and now Biden is the president-elect. What do you have to say to that?
Bob Moriarty: I don’t think there’s any question. There have been thousands of affidavits of people proving there is more corruption and more cheating in this election than any election in American history. I see your point, and there’s some validity to the point, but at the same time if you compared the number of people who went to Biden speeches compared to the number of people who went to Trump speeches, Trump was absolutely more interesting and had a lot more support. Everything that we saw in the 2020 election was an instant repeat of the 2016 election, including the entire mainstream media right up until the end saying Biden was going to win by 15 or 20%. Biden did not win that election. Absolutely, categorically did not win the election. The Dominion voting machines switched votes to him, the Republican observers were not allowed to observe. They were feeding dummy ballots through the machines, and the problem with it is that Biden is coming into office with a cloud, and it’s only going to get worse. In essence the Supreme Court has said, “We don’t care how much cheating there is in elections,” so there will never be another honest election from now until when the United States burns down.
Goldfinger: There’s a lot to unpack there. I’m just going to address a few points. Trump’s own officials, the people that he selected and appointed, including many people who publicly advocated for him for years, from the Republican party, said there was no widespread vote rigging or fraud in this election. Trump has had more of his own cabinet step down or be fired than any other President in history. His former best friend and BFF, Bill Barr, wouldn’t even stand up anymore for Trump’s own allegations. Never before has a US President acted in such a disgraceful manner as Mr. Trump has acted in the last couple of months. Forget the previous three and a half years, just the last couple of months. To make all the unsubstantiated allegations that he has when he lost the vote by six million votes. I don’t know if there was vote rigging on a small scale. I don’t know, but his own officials said there wasn’t. In all of the states that he lost certified their vote, including Republican electors voting for Biden in the electoral college. I know we can read all these right wing extremist websites, and all these people who don’t want to give up the election hope for Trump, but the reality is there’s overwhelming evidence to the contrary of what you just said.
Bob Moriarty: Okay, stop right there. I can prove categorically I’m correct and you’re wrong.
Goldfinger: How can you do that?
Bob Moriarty: I can prove it. For four and a half years there has been an ongoing coup against Trump. Now you’re telling me that the Democrats who lied about the impeachment, lied about Joe Biden’s connection with China, hid everything from the media, lied about the Russian influence, the FBI had Seth Rich’s computer a year ago. The Democrats lied about everything.
Here’s the issue, what you’re saying is, yes for four and a half years the FBI lied, the DOJ lied, the impeachment was bullshit, the DNC was the one with the connections to the Russians, we know that Seth Rich provided the DNC emails, but at the very last moment the Democrats decided we’re going to hold an honest election. Now, I will absolutely concede Donald Trump is a total jackass and he is despised by many, many, many people in the United States but my God they were pumping votes into the system at 2:00 in the morning after they ran the Republican operatives off. This was an absolutely corrupt election, and I don’t like Trump.
Goldfinger: Both parties lie because politicians lie constantly. I don’t see the Democratic party or the Republican party as being of higher integrity than the other. I think they’re both full of bad actors, and liars, and cheats, and con artists, and I don’t necessarily think that Biden is a better human being than Trump is, or Trump is a better human being than Biden is. It’s unfortunate that this was our choice this year in 2020. We had a choice between getting a knife to the throat or a gun in the mouth. It wasn’t a very good choice as an American voter, but I will say, as an intelligent human being who can see which way the winds shift, I could see this coming from a mile away.
I knew that Biden was going to beat Trump because there was a concerted effort in the media to get out the vote. We know, and I know you know even if you might not admit it, that high voter turnout is not good for the Republican party for obvious reasons. The fact that Republicans and Trump supporters can not, and actually certified the vote for Biden, and will not come up with any concrete evidence of any voter fraud, and in fact said that this was one of the cleanest elections in history, including an election that elected many Republicans in the House. I’d say it’s quite a leap to think that the election was rigged for Biden but not rigged in the House of Representatives, and doesn’t really quite make sense. It doesn’t add up. There’s a lot to these theories that doesn’t add up.
The simplest theory is this election had the highest voter turnout in history. More people voted in the US than ever before, largely because of what happened this year between the George Floyd killing and the anti-police protests, and all the things that happened surrounding the virus. People came out to vote to voice their opinion and their lack of confidence in President Trump. Many of them came out to vote against Trump. The same way the 2016 election was decided by voters who voted against Hillary, this election was decided by voters who voted against Trump. That’s what makes sense to me logically as a human being who wasn’t born yesterday.
Given how strong Trump still managed to turn out the vote in states like Florida and Wisconsin, I believe it’s fair to state that he could have easily defeated Biden if he had shown some compassion and humility regarding the virus, and had shown more leadership when it came to the riots in May/June. The fact that 75 million Americans voted for Trump demonstrates that he is still a hugely popular and divisive political figure in this country.
Bob Moriarty: Well, yeah but you just made my point again. You just proved that the Republicans in the House of Representatives won the election and they were supposed to be losing 20-30 seats, and, in fact, they picked up eight or ten seats. That was something that was an absolute shock to everybody. Nobody expected that to happen. The people who voted for the Republicans in the House of Representatives voted Republican, but somehow they didn’t vote Republican for president.
Goldfinger: You want to know something Bob? It makes perfect sense because I was one of those people. I voted Republican in every single part of that ballot except for President, and I voted Biden. I think there’s a lot of people like me who are just sick and tired of Trump and his big fat mouth, and his lies, his never ending lies and Tweets, but we didn’t want to see the country flip completely to the left. So we voted Republican in the Senate and the House, and in the courts, and on certain other social issues. In my mind, this election made perfect sense and looked completely honest, and had no fraud whatsoever.
Bob Moriarty: The 10,000 people who provided sworn affidavits that they had observed voter fraud, they were all lying?
Goldfinger: It’s a circus show. Then they got off at a gardening business in Philadelphia to have a press … This challenge by the Trump team was a circus act at every step of the way. No other party has lost 50 lawsuits in every state in the country. To think that this election was rigged, you literally have to believe that Biden and the Democrats, and all of these actors supposedly, were able to orchestrate a rigged election and a fraud across multiple states, involving thousands and tens of thousands of people. This would have to have been the most amazing, amazing fraud in the history of the world to have this pulled off the way that the Trump circus team is alleging that it was pulled off.
Bernie Madoff must be blushing from federal prison in North Carolina.
Bob Moriarty: For four years the Democrats, the DOJ, and the FBI, pretended the Russian influence in 2016 was between Trump and the Russians, and they knew all along that that wasn’t true.
Yeah, but hang on. The whole impeachment thing was fraudulent. There was not a chance in hell that they were going to get 65% of the votes in Senate. There was no way the impeachment would boot Trump. They attacked him, and attacked him, and attacked him, and attacked him for four years.
Goldfinger: Are all politicians liars?
Bob Moriarty: Yes.
Goldfinger: So we can agree on that key point. All politicians are liars, so just like the Democrats lied and tried to cheat Trump for three and a half or four years, now the Republicans and Trump are trying to lie and cheat the democrats in the exact same way. It makes perfect sense to me. They’re all liars, they’re all cheats.
Bob Moriarty: Yeah. You proved my point again. Barr came out and said it was an honest election. He’s a politician, therefore, he lied. Therefore, it’s not an honest election. The really strange thing is we have not had a coup d’etat for three years, or three and a half years, it started before Trump won office. It is crazy. But here’s where I think we can go, the Democrats, Antifa, Black Lives Matter, we are seeing the identical sort of craziness that you saw in St. Petersburg in 1917 and Paris in 1789. We have absolutely gone over the edge, okay? The United States is finished.
Goldfinger: Let’s transition here. I do want to say that I believe the United States is a great country and the American people can mend their differences and come together again. I believe we all have a lot more in common, than the various illusions that separate us. We all want love, freedom, and prosperity. I hope we can agree on that and create a better future for our children.
You said that the US is finished. We’re seeing one of the key aspects of the US empire, the US dollar, plunge in the last few weeks. We’re also seeing one of your favorite topics, Bitcoin, make new all time highs. Now let me ask you something.
Will you admit that you were wrong on Bitcoin?
Bob Moriarty: Okay. I will admit that when I said it was the top in December of 2017, I was 100% wrong. It was actually a bottom.
Goldfinger: It was a bottom?
Bob Moriarty: It was the bottom. If I can be wrong, if I said it was the top and I was wrong then it has to mean that, in fact, instead of it being the top it was a bottom.
Goldfinger: There’s a whole lot of territory in between the top and the bottom.
Bob Moriarty: No, it’s only about $2,000. It was almost $20,000 then, it’s $22,000 now.
Goldfinger: That’s one way to look at it. Or you can say you were right for three years and now you’re wrong?
As a trader I would say you were absolutely 100% correct in December 2017 when you said Bitcoin had peaked. After all, it subsequently declined more than 80%. Now you’re wrong because it’s making new all-time highs almost every single day.
Bob Moriarty: Yes, that would be absolutely correct. What I will say, in self defense, we’re either at a top now or we’re very close to a top. I’ll give you even one better, the NASDAQ is within a point or two from the DSI of a major crash.
Goldfinger: There’s been a few points I made in my morning emails in the last week or so. The first one is that according to Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage, which is definitely a very good source of getting a good grasp of the market landscape, hedge fund net exposure is at or near record levels. Hedge funds are very, very bullish on the stock market right now. Another key point is cash balances are down to an average of 4%. Potentially even lower than 4% because all of this data that we get is usually a week or two old. Cash is trash, nobody wants to hold cash, and everybody wants to be bullish on tech stocks, the stock market, long Bitcoin, betting on a reflation trade. The call/put ratio is now at January 2018 levels, and we know what happened next.
Now, can they all be right? Is it really that easy?
Bob Moriarty: We’re at an extreme of emotion and the next major move is down, and down in a serious way. That would be true of Tesla, that would be true of Bitcoin, that would be true of Robinhood, and absolutely NASDAQ. The S&P, and the Dow are not as extreme but yeah. We are beyond 1929. We are beyond 1966. We’re beyond the year 2000. We’re absolutely in never never land. Now I don’t know that the dollar is going to continue to crash. I’m not very good at forecasting currencies. But if you think 2020 was bad, I think 2021’s going to be worse.
Goldfinger: Very interesting, because from my vantage point I see on one hand that the Fed, and other central banks, are doing everything they can to keep conditions very, very loose and accommodative in order to incite and incentivize more risk taking and higher inflation. Then also, in the US obviously, we have the Biden administration coming in talking about doing more and more fiscal stimulus. On one hand, I can see which way the wind is blowing to make cash and currencies worth less, and to stoke bubbles in financial assets. Then we saw the Fed yesterday with Powell saying there’s “no red flags” in asset prices, which is a very bold statement and it’s no accident that the market rose after that, and the market’s up even higher this morning. I see that, but on the other hand I say, “Man, if everybody agrees on something in the financial market that’s usually the top.”
Bob Moriarty: Yes. Absolutely. We’re at a top. Now, whether it’s today or tomorrow I can’t say, but yeah we’re at a top.
Goldfinger: Let’s turn to the junior mining sector. We’ve had tax-loss silly season for the last few weeks. We’ve seen a lot of different companies, their shares tumble. I can say that I have used these last couple weeks to accumulate some of my favorite names. What have you been buying and what would you be buying here today in the junior mining sector?
Bob Moriarty: I have been buying for the last month, and they’re stocks that I’ve talked about for months. I’m going to give you a perfect example. NuLegacy (TSX-V:NUG) just came out with so-so results yesterday and the stock went down to $.11. It was down more than 30%. Today it opened and went up to $.155, $.14 now. There are a lot of bargains now. When the Federal Reserve comes out and says we want inflation, when a new President comes in who says he’s going to be accommodating, we’re going to light a bonfire under gold, and silver, and platinum, and the junior markets. Tax-loss silly season is ending right now, and I expect almost all of juniors to be up substantially in the next month or two. I think we’ve seen the bottom for gold and silver.
Goldfinger: Okay. I tend to agree. I think when Raoul Pal said, “I’m dumping all my gold,” that was about a month ago, and obviously he made a good trade to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, but his dumping of gold at $1770 was not a very good move, in my estimation. Gold is up $130 an ounce from the morning that he sold his position. I think we definitely saw a sentiment extreme there. Though I wouldn’t necessarily buy more right here this morning at $1900, I definitely think there are a lot of good junior gold miners that are still very cheap this morning. Two Yukon companies, Banyan Gold (TSX-V:BYN) and Victoria Gold (TSX:VGLD) got extremely oversold yesterday afternoon. I think that was just pure tax-loss insanity dumping. Some of the stocks we’ve talked about previously, Novo Resources (TSX-V:NVO) and Irving (CSE:IRV), have also seen some weakness in recent weeks. What do you think about those here today, and would you buy more of those?
Bob Moriarty: The answer would be yes, and that would be true of Irving and Novo, but the real key, and I would highly encourage anyone reading this, go to StockWatch or go to Stock House, when you see the range that shares have throughout the year, you’ll realize that if you go in and you trade these stocks you can make a lot of money. If you buy when they’re cheap, and you sell when they’re expensive … Let me give you a few stocks. Here is a stock, the low is $.15, the high was $.43. Another stock, the low was $.025, the high was $.14. Another stock the low was $.035, the high was $.44. Another stock the low was $.165, the high was $1.17. Another stock the low was $.20, the high was $1.95.
People do not pay attention to the range of stocks but if they realized that a lot of the stocks go up 500%, 600% in a year, you do not have to buy a stock and hold it until hell freezes over. You can buy a stock when it’s cheap and hold it for a 50%, 100%, or 200% gain. Irving’s been as low as $1.45, a high as $4.60. That’s a 300% range. I was buying Lion One when it was low at $.72, it’s high was $2.66. These are extraordinary companies in a very positive market, and the fact that they go down, it’s not a bad thing. It’s a good thing.
Goldfinger: Yeah, I think that’s a great point. I wrote an article featuring a tax-loss silly season list with six stocks on it a couple weeks ago. You posted it on 321Gold. A couple of the stocks that I highlighted, one was Newrange Gold (TSX-V:NRG). Their Pamlico project is in the Walker Lane trend. Their 2020 low was 7 cents a share. Their 2020 high was 43 cents a share, and recently, just a couple weeks ago, traded back to 10 cents a share. To your point, if the low is 7 cents and the high is 43 cents, and the stock is 10 or 11 cents, are we at a high or a low?
Bob Moriarty: You’re at a low.
Goldfinger: Right. I bought that day, at $.105 and $.11. Probably a pretty good time to buy Newrange. Obviously you’re not going to time the top or the low to the exact day. You’re just going to do your best to buy as cheap as you can, and sell as pricey as you can. If the range is 300% or 400%, as you mentioned, you don’t have to get it exactly right to do very well.
Bob Moriarty: Yeah, but you just said something that, unfortunately, it’s the way most investors invest. They want to buy stock and they want to sell it high. That actually is a logical failure and that’s why they don’t make money. You want to buy and make a profit. You do not have to hold onto it until it hits a new high. There’s lots of stocks that you can make 100%, 200% a year. Buy and hold is probably a mistake if you are a true contrarian. If you’re a true contrarian you want to buy when everybody hates stocks. If you go to the chat boards, you’re certainly aware of CEO.ca. Everybody’s been out with their long knives trying to stab Novo, Irving, and Lion One. That’s exactly the time to buy, when everybody hates it.
Goldfinger: Yeah, I agree. I’m not as familiar with Irving or Lion One (TSX-V:LIO). I know the companies, obviously, and I’ve spoken to management but I don’t follow them that closely. Not nearly as close as you do. Novo I follow a little more closely, and I have to say that just from a sentiment standpoint, so forget about the projects or the management, just from a sentiment standpoint I’d have to say that Novo is probably a pretty good buy here today. You had one of the largest gold producers in the world sell their position, you had a lot of people bashing the company all year long, and there’s big technical support around $2 a share. Just purely on sentiment and the chart, Novo is probably a pretty good buy here today, at least for a trade into January.
Bob Moriarty: Yes.
Goldfinger: What would you say about people who say, “Well, if Kirkland Lake sold then that means it’s an over-valued stock and the share price is likely to go lower”?
Bob Moriarty: The fact that Kirkland Lake’s objectives are different than Novo’s objectives is absolutely immaterial. If you pay attention to the Lassonde curve, the ideal point to buy any stock is just as they’re going into production. Everybody’s saying, “Yeah but they’re not in production yet.” And that’s bullshit. Here’s the deal, they took over an existing mill that was in production, does work, has people who are familiar with how to make the thing work. It’s not a new facility that’s never been used before and Novo has actually tested the Beatons Creek ore, so they know exactly what the characteristics are, and what it takes to mill. These guys are going to go into production probably producing 120,000 to 150,000 ounces a year, and everybody’s whining about, “Well they haven’t shown they can make a profit yet.” Well, for Christ’s sake you can’t show you make a profit until you actually get into production.
Goldfinger: Yeah. I think that’s a great point. Obviously if, and this is a big if, if Novo can meet its milestones and get into production, and prove it can make a profit in 2021, the stock could be an easy double from here. But if they can’t, if they have some hiccups along the way and they don’t prove they can make a profit, then obviously the bashers and the naysayers are going to be right.
Bob Moriarty: Yeah, but at the same time anybody who’s a naysayer at the low point in a stock is an idiot. They need to be a naysayer when a stock is at its high. Likewise with Bitcoin. I will absolutely say $22,000 Bitcoin is totally insane, and when I wrote those pieces back three years ago I said that at the top of every bubble there is always an industry respected authority who comes out and says, “Okay.” Eric Sprott did it in April of 2011 when silver hit $50 an ounce. Eric Sprott was getting $65 an ounce for his silver ETF, and that’s totally insane. I forget the guy’s name, the computer guy, back in 2017 that said he would bite his own pecker if it didn’t-
Goldfinger: John McAfee.
Bob Moriarty: McAfee, yeah. I like Raoul Pal a lot. He’s a friend of mine. I know him. I’ve had dinner with him, I’ve had drinks with him. I know his girlfriend and he’s an absolutely brilliant guy. He just happens to be 100% wrong.
Goldfinger: I agree with everything you said except for the last bit. He’s not wrong because he’s been right since he’s been buying Bitcoin this year, and he’s a trader. He’s a trader. He’s making a trade. He’s buying something low and he’s going to sell it for higher than what he paid for it. So how is that wrong?
Bob Moriarty: The rule of alternative investments, if you’ve got enough money for one fancy car you’ve got a choice between a Porsche and a Mercedes. If you buy the Mercedes you can’t buy the Porsche. If you buy the Porsche, you can’t buy the Mercedes. You made the point earlier that was absolutely valid, he sold gold to buy Bitcoin and gold’s up 8% since he sold the low a month ago.
Goldfinger: But Bitcoin’s up 30%.
Bob Moriarty: The strange thing is I will say he is catching a falling dagger. I don’t ever buy things after they’ve gone up five or six fold, period. Absolutely could be the greatest stock in the world. I don’t do it. I’m going to buy it low. I’m not going to buy it high. He is buying at the high.
Goldfinger: I’m going to read you a Tweet from a Bitcoin enthusiast that got 800 Retweets and 9,000 likes. I want to hear your comments.
Bob Moriarty: Okay.
Goldfinger: He said, “My Bitcoin price target is $238,855. I arrived at this price target by Googling the distance between the earth and the moon, and converting it from miles to dollars.”
Bob Moriarty: Well, that’s about as good a reason to come up with an investment as anything I could think of. I use chicken entrails myself.
Goldfinger: (laughs loudly) If this isn’t euphoria and silliness I’m not sure what is, but hey financial markets are well known for going to crazy extremes so maybe we’re just going to another crazy extreme. Many bitcoin bulls have begun taking out personal loans in order to accumulate more bitcoin. A company even issued US$400 million of debt and publicly stated they will use 100% of the proceeds to buy bitcoin.
Bob Moriarty: It’s a very valid point and that’s one of the things that I say in my book, well they go too far in both directions. The mere fact that it’s at a record high that’s not a good thing. That’s a bad thing. If a stock price is low that’s not a bad thing, that’s a good thing. Markets go up and down, and people can’t come to grips with that. “Oh my god my stock went down. Why? Why did my stock go down?” “Well, hell if you ain’t selling, why do you give a shit?”
Why do people have such a giant issue with the price of a stock going down. Every stock goes up and every stock goes down. That’s the way markets are supposed to work. Why is it that investors think that the price is supposed to go up every day after they have bought? That is not how markets work.
Goldfinger: Well it does matter Bob, because if a share price falls very low then the company is inevitably forced to raise money at a low share price which leads to more dilution. The share price matters, and short term price moves do matter! Especially in junior mining, a sector in which companies are regularly raising money and share dilution matters a lot.
One more topic to broach. At the end of every year it’s a custom to make a prediction for something fairly unexpected that you think could happen in the following year. I want you to go first. What do you think of an unexpected event that could affect financial markets that nobody’s really thinking about right now that could occur in your estimation in 2021?
Bob Moriarty: The public and the world is going to wake up to the fact that everything they’ve been told about COVID is an absolute lie, and the vaccines are the most dangerous medicines ever invented.
Goldfinger: What do you think the financial market outcome of that might be?
Bob Moriarty: Actually there won’t be any connection. The financial markets are going to crash. They’re going to pay for their sins over the last 40 years, and very soon we’re going to recognize that you can’t spend your way to prosperity.
Goldfinger: I’m going to take my shot at it. Consensus right now is that inflation is going to go up a lot in 2021. In fact, we’ll probably see core inflation stabilize above 3% by the end of 2021. I just read a research note from a firm this morning that said as much. My surprise for 2021 is that inflation will not reach even 2% in 2021. That will probably cause the Fed to continue going into overdrive and create even more asset bubbles than exist today.
Bob Moriarty: There’s a flaw in that.
Goldfinger: What’s the flaw?
Bob Moriarty: You could be correct, but there’s a fundamental flaw to it. The measures that they’re using to measure inflation are not accurate. The Fed have said they want inflation, which is certainly a dangerous thing to say. In fact, the whole COVID thing gave the government the opportunity to blow up the economy and the world, and people are getting further, and further, and further behind. I just pulled up Yahoo finance and it said 885,000 Americans filed unemployment claims last week. I think the number of restaurants that can not pay their December rent, I think it was about 60%. We have killed the airline industry, we’ve killed the travel industry, we’ve killed restaurants, we’ve killed small businesses, and the government is going to pour money into it. When I said that we are at the same place that Paris was in 1789, and St. Petersburg was in 1917, the government had destroyed the currency, people couldn’t afford to eat, and they were rioting. We’re absolutely seeing that now, and I guarantee it will get worse.
Goldfinger: Thank you for your time and insights today Bob. 2021 is shaping up to potentially be a very lucrative year for investors in precious metals and natural resources. I believe it will also be a year in which quality rises to the top and there is a wide dispersion of performance within the junior mining sector.
Disclosure: Author owns shares of BYN.V, NRG.V, and VGCX.TO at the time of publishing and may choose to buy or sell at any time without notice.
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