The following chart courtesy of Barclay’s Research is a tough one to ignore:
The slope and magnitude of the decline in S&P net profit margin curve at the beginning of the last two recessions is very similar to the slope of the curve currently. Moreover, it’s interesting to note that recessions have a tendency to be spaced roughly 7-9 years apart. The spacing between the beginning of the last two recessions was about 7 years and the last recession ended in early 2009. If a new recession were to begin in early 2016 it would be the identical time gap between the 2001 and 2008 recessions.