Gold Turns Constructive After Third Week of Correction

Gold found support exactly where it was supposed to this morning:

 

Gold (Daily)

Gold_Daily_4.1.2016

The confluence of the rising 50-day simple moving average, the lower 2-standard deviation Bollinger Band, a key pivot point ($1212), and good old fashioned support turned out to be enough to turn the tide after gold was down ~2% at the lows this morning.

After today’s session gold bulls have some positive things to work with heading into next week:

  • Clear evidence that there is solid support between $1200 and $1210
  • Gold has spent the last three weeks ‘correcting’ by both time and price (~6%) and any of the overbought conditions that existed in February and early March have fully dissipated
  • The US Dollar Index is hanging on by a thread; even after today’s relatively strong U.S. monthly employment data the dollar couldn’t muster much of a rally

 

USD_Daily_4.1

Below ~93 the dollar could fall very far, very fast. 

  • The Commitments of Traders data is beginning to offer a bullish flavor despite being at relatively extreme levels of speculative net length and commercial net shorts

Gold_COT_4.1.2016

While it’s not great news for bulls that gold futures speculators are at multi-year highs in net length while commercials are on the other side of this trade, the fact is that gold has digested this relatively extreme positioning in a constructive manner for the last month. Moreover, high levels of speculative length/commercial shorts are characteristic of longer term bullish trends in gold. Supported by the weight of significantly bullish technical factors there is a good chance that we are seeing the initial stages of a bullish paradigm shift in gold futures positioning.

In the ‘Trading Lab’ at CEO.CA we initiated a trading long position in GLD near the lows this morning:

 

Goldfinger_4.1.2016

 

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