Thus far Iraqi government forces and various Iran backed militias have managed to keep ISIS from capturing and/or inflicting damage on key Iraqi oil infrastructure. However, RBC points out that despite significant coalition airstrikes ISIS has not sustained material diminution of its presence or ability to project force. Here is RBC:
“….we believe that the group (ISIS) represents a significant, underappreciated risk for oil.”
RBC also points out that ISIS offshoots have made significant gains in Libya in recent months and energy assets in the oil rich Sirte basin have been targeted by these offshoot groups. A significant attack on Libyan oil infrastructure and/or southern Iraqi (Basra) oil infrastructure is well within the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, the market appears to be solely focused on the current oversupply situation and has given little credit to ISIS’s ability to successfully attack any key Middle East energy infrastructure.