WTI crude suffered an 8% spill today. The fundamental reasons are fairly straightforward (continued supply glut that has not been completely redressed despite the large price decline at the end of last year, a China stock market crash which has accelerated concerns about the stability of the Chinese economy), however, the technical situation for crude is even clearer:
Crude oil sentiment has been improving all year and recently reached its highest levels since before last year’s crude oil crash. Meanwhile, the market seems to be getting ahead of demand peaking next month:
In Recent years oil has been peaking earlier in the summer, this summer’s swoon appears to confirm this trend:
The $52.50 level is an area of potential support for WTI with a huge test waiting below at the $50 round number:
Gold
The latest Commitments of Traders Report from the CFTC is the most constructive data that gold bulls have received in some time:
A large increase in fresh speculative shorts has brought the net speculative length by large speculators to below 70,000 contracts, a level from which tradable rallies have begun in the past. The $1172-$1175 area is the nut to crack for now:
