Realized volatility in gold has dropped by 50% in the last month and is at the lowest levels since last October (just before gold fell nearly $100/oz):
GLD rolling 7-day average true range (ATR) at bottom has fallen 50% in just the last month!
The recent range defined by $1190 on the downside and $1220 on the upside (114-117 in GLD) might persist for a couple more days, however, with the February non-farm payrolls report due on Friday morning and an FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting in two weeks (not to mention quadruple options expiration on Friday March 20th) there is a very good chance that gold is on the verge of breaking out of the recent range and making a big move.
It is also interesting to note that investor sentiment on gold has rebounded to the neutral area in recent weeks after being extremely depressed at the end of 2014:
The last time sentiment on gold rebounded to the neutral area from being extremely depressed was October 2013 which preceded a large decline over the next couple of months. Will this time be different?…