Since forming a double-top at $1307/oz last week gold has formed a bearish technical pattern that could result in a move lower back down to the $1250s:
A breach of the $1275 support level would set up a pullback to the $1250s. Such a scenario would also follow the August/September 2012 analog quite closely – gold would go on to make a marginal new high in early-October before falling $100+ over the next month.
The two main catalysts for gold which we highlighted at the end of last year (ECB QE announcement and Syriza victory in Greek election) have now come to pass and some ‘selling of the news’ is par for the course. In order for gold to decisively power above $1300/oz a long-term sustainable catalyst will need to come to the forefront. The futility of the ECB’s quantitative easing program and the renewed threat of a breakup of the eurozone could be just such a catalyst…