A Notable Divergence in the Gold Miners

posted in: Charts, Gold, Gold Stocks | 0

A notable divergence took place today between gold miners (GDX) and gold itself: GDX rose 2.46% as gold fell 1.1%. This is a large divergence which could be explained by a multitude of factors (month end rebalancing, ~2% rally in the major indices, etc.), it is highly significant nonetheless.

 

GDX

Before the mining & natural resource bear market really took hold in 2013 the combination of a bullish divergence in the gold miners and a bullish engulfing candlestick printed by GDX would have been enough to set off a bevy of buy signals. However, in the depths of the current bear market one trading session certainly not make a trend. We will want to see GDX rise above the $14 level with force and rise above the flattening 50-day moving average while snapping the recent trend of lower highs.

With that being said the September low (all-time low) took place on light volume and also saw a significant momentum divergence (RSI-14 barely fell below 40). The ingredients for a major bottom are all present. Meanwhile the most important ingredient, an abundance of buyers, remains elusive.