Curious CoT Report for Gold

posted in: GLD, Gold | 0

The CFTC Commitments of Traders gold report for Tuesday March 10, 2015 is a curious one to say the least. While we saw a roughly $4 billion liquidation of net long exposure by large speculators (to the smallest net long position since last November), small speculators actually INCREASED long positions and barely changed their next exposure:

 

Gold_COT_Future_3.13.2015

What makes this report so interesting is the fact that the multi-billion dollar liquidation by large specs is clearly¬†responsible for snapping through the $1180-$1200 support zone. However, this powerful breach of major support did not serve to sufficiently alter small speculators’ sentiment on gold from a relatively bullish posture.

At previous gold market bottoms we have seen small speculators drastically reducing net exposure and at the October/November lows small specs actually moved to a fairly large net short position (the November 4th, 2014 COT report showed a nearly $1 billion net short position by small speculators – a record). This is bad news for gold bulls who are hoping for a double-bottom near $1,130/oz or a quick reversal back above $1,200. There are no signs of capitulation in gold despite the recent sell-off and structural damage to the charts.