Volatile Beginning To December Could Be A Bearish Omen For The End of 2015

An interesting statistic was brought to my attention this morning by Ryan Detrick: With a 1%+ closing move today the S&P 500 will have begun December with a +/- 1% or more move each of the first four days of the month – the S&P did this in ’31, ’32, ’37, and ’08 and the S&P lost 47%, 15%, 38%, and 38% respectively during those years.

 

SPY (S&P 500 Daily)

SPY_Daily_12.4.2015

 The SPY is testing a layer of resistance ($209-$212) that has stopped it half a dozen times during the last 7 months. 

The recent spike in volatility after a long stretch of lower volatility appears reminiscent of the beginning of the August decline. December is typically a bullish month for equities, however, the start to December this year indicates that this month is likely to be anything but typical.