The Most Important Chart For The New Year

posted in: Charts | 0

Futures speculators have spent the last few months amassing a more than $50 billion net notional short position in Treasury futures:



This massive short position is even more significant given that the 10-year yield is nearing the apex of a symmetrical triangle which has formed during the last several months:


10-year Treasury Note Yield (Weekly)

A big move in Treasury yields could be in store for January. Moreover, with futures speculators heavily positioned for an upside move in yields, as often occurs we may get exactly the opposite. The 2.13% yield level is the downside level to watch; a break below this level would target a move below ~1.90% and potentially much lower (potentially down to the 2015 low at 1.65%).