The gold miners as represented by GDX have tested the ~$13 support level more than a half dozen times since July and thus far this support level has held every time:
Forget seasonality, forget extreme CoT positioning, forget that sentiment on the gold mining sector couldn’t be any worse.
What matters most from my vantage point is that support has been tested time and time again and buyers have continued to absorb the selling at this level. It’s not clear why prices of gold mining shares will rally (aside from the obvious catalyst of a rising gold price), however, it is clear that gold mining shares have absorbed a kitchen sink full of bad news and price has not breached the $13 for longer than a few hours.
Sellers have been exhausted and the path of least resistance is higher. With the relative strength index (RSI-14) breaking above the median line and pointing higher conditions are ripe for a rally up to at least the ~$16 area.
The goldies could be set up for a December to remember…