While most market participants have been focused on crude oil, natural gas is poised for a powerful upside move over the coming weeks:
A fairly impressive rounding bottom pattern has formed during the last month in front month natural gas futures – a breakout above $3.00 would target a move up to the $3.20-$3.30 area. Moreover, there is a tantalizing gap still open up at $3.45.
Seasonality is also highly supportive of a long position in natural gas and could also help to explain some of today’s 4% rally:
Bullish seasonality for natural gas begins today and extends into mid-June.
CFTC Commitments of Traders data also supports a bullish view of natural gas with commercials at their largest net long position and speculators at their largest net short position since early 2011 (a 30%+ rally ensued over the next few months):